Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS64 KMEG 060831
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 331 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend.
  The primary concerns will be damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall.

- Daily rounds of rain continue into next week.

- Temperatures will generally remain near normal this weekend
  through next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
  the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 206 Very warm, humid
conditions are in place across the Midsouth with a few showers
over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Any showers
this morning will have to contend with low level stability and
weak shear, likely keeping the severe threat low through tomorrow
morning. By early afternoon, a decaying MCS is forecast to move
through the region as displayed by the HRRR/HREF. Convective
coverage is somewhat uncertain, but the prevailing sentiment
amongst CAMs is that an outflow boundary harboring a few showers
and storms is possible. Additionally, given the timing of the
MCS`s passage, subsident and less unstable conditions would
persist into the normal diurnal max of instability. Therefore,
additional uncertainty presents itself this evening regarding
convective coverage, but storm development is still expected.
Given the summer-like airmass in place and increasing shear, any
storms are likely to organize and offer a primary wind and hail
threat which has prompted a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe
weather across the entire area.

Similarly warm and humid conditions are expected tonight into
tomorrow. The upper pattern will retain its zonal shape with model
guidance bringing a shortwave down through the Plains towards the
Midsouth through Saturday afternoon. More afternoon convection
would be likely as this feature moves through the region as ample
CAPE and shear would be in place. SPC has a marginal (level 1/5)
risk of severe weather for Saturday afternoon, primarily for wind
and hail. This risk could potentially change as convective
uncertainties are ironed out over the next day. Regardless, with
more upper forcing, storms may persist longer into the night
Saturday with a larger coverage of severe potential. By late
Saturday night and in to Sunday morning, a cold front pushes
showers and storms south through the region into north Mississippi
Sunday morning.

Somewhat cooler conditions are expected beyond this point north
of the front, which is forecast to stall somewhere in Mississippi
and maintain this latitude, through next week. Both surface and
upper ridging will build as well with northwest flow taking shape
by Monday beneath another upper low over the Great Lakes. Diurnal
jumps in instability will bring shower and storm chances each
day throughout the week, especially over the southern half of the
region. Severe chances appear low, but a few marginally severe
storms could be possible if instability is able to over perform.
Gradual warming of highs back into the mid to upper 80s is also
likely towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Generally benign weather will prevail overnight, despite the low
chance for isolated showers overnight. The multiple complexes of
storms moving across the Southern Plains are expected to weaken as
they move through AR and will likely dissipate before reaching the
Mid-South. However, the outflow boundary from this activity may
result in scattered diurnal convection with a secondary band of
storms possible along a weak surface boundary that will move into
the area in the late afternoon and evening. It is likely that
storms will be in the CWA in the afternoon and early evening, but
confidence is too low to include anything more than PROB30 for
TSRA at this point.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...MJ